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1.5-ton heat pump & AC cost
A 1.5-ton system moves 18,000 BTU per hour. Below: what 1.5-ton equipment lists for online today, and what a DOE national-lab benchmark says it should cost installed.
Installed-cost benchmark by system type and efficiency
REMDB (National Laboratory of the Rockies, formerly NREL) replacement-cost regressions, restated from 2023 dollars with CPI-U. National averages: high-cost metros run above them. Ductwork, permits beyond the norm and panel work are not included. Method
| System type | Standard | Mid-tier inverter | High-efficiency / cold-climate | Listed equipment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central heat pump (ducted split) | $12,499 $6,896–$18,102 | $14,494 $8,093–$20,894 | $16,795 $9,474–$24,117 | — |
| Mini-split heat pump | $9,560 $5,736–$13,384 | $10,098 $6,059–$14,137 | $11,271 $6,762–$15,779 | $2,255 |
"Heat pump only" assumes the outdoor unit alone is replaced; its range is anchored on listed condenser prices, not REMDB, and is an estimate. AC + furnace assumes an 80,000 BTU/h, 80% AFUE furnace.
1.5-ton systems with listed prices
| System | Type | Tons | SEER2 | HSPF2 | Rating source | Lowest listed | Retailer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daikin RXF18AXVJU | Mini-split | 1.5 | 21 | 9.6 | ENERGY STAR | $2,255 | HVACDirect |
Is 1.5 tons the right size?
Tonnage should come from a room-by-room load calculation (ACCA Manual J), not from square footage alone. Insulation, windows, air leakage, ceiling height and climate can move the answer by a ton or more. An oversized system short-cycles, dehumidifies poorly and costs more up front; an undersized one runs constantly on design days.
If your contractor matched the old unit's size without a load calculation, ask for one. If two contractors quote different tonnages for the same house, ask both to show their Manual J.
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