Methodology & sources
Rule #1 at TonnageCheck: no fabricated prices or specs. Every equipment price, efficiency rating, tax credit statement and benchmark on this site comes from a public source we link to. Where a number is a modelled estimate rather than a listed price, it carries an estimate badge and an explanation.
Equipment prices
32 systems and 1 line set, 36 price points from HVACDirect and Alpine Home Air, captured October 24, 2026 by scripts/fetch-energystar-seed.mjs. The script reads each listing's published price, model numbers and spec table, identifies itself with an honest user agent, waits a second between requests, and only fetches pages the retailers' robots.txt allows. Listings it cannot parse are dropped and logged, never filled in by hand.
These are public online retail prices. Contractors usually buy from distributors at unpublished prices, typically lower. We label them "wholesale equipment value" on the scorecard because they are the closest verifiable public proxy for what the equipment costs, not because they are distributor prices.
Efficiency ratings
For each system we query the U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR, data.energystar.gov dataset (ENERGY STAR Certified Air-Source Heat Pumps dataset (w7cv-9xjt)) by outdoor model number, and accept a record only when its indoor model also matches the listing, or its SEER2 matches the listing exactly. 13 of 32 systems match; those pages show SEER2, EER2, HSPF2, COP at 5°F, capacity at 5°F and 47°F, and the AHRI reference number straight from the ENERGY STAR record, with a link to it. For the rest, ratings come from the retailer's spec table for that listing's own components and are labelled "listing". Systems below 15.2 SEER2 are below the ENERGY STAR minimum for split systems, which we note.
Installed-cost benchmarks
Fair installed ranges come from the National Residential Efficiency Measures Database (REMDB), published by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (formerly NREL), U.S. DOE. We download its data file (https://remdb.nlr.gov/db.json) and evaluate its regressions exactly as the REMDB web app does: installed cost = multiplier × (x1 × metric1 + x2 × metric2 + b) + adder (retrofit), evaluated at low / mid / high coefficients — the same calculation the REMDB web app performs.
- Ducted heat pump: "Air Source Heat Pump, Centrally ducted" (retrofit), by tons and SEER. REMDB's data source for this class is "LBNL Regressions, August 2024", built from incentive-program project costs, and its notes say low and high are about ±40%.
- Mini-split: "Air Source Heat Pump, Non-ducted" single-zone (up to 1.5 tons) or multi-zone.
- AC + furnace: "Air Conditioner, Centrally ducted" plus "Furnaces, Gas Furnace" at the furnace size and AFUE you select.
- Heat pump only (outdoor unit): REMDB has no class for this. We take the median listed condenser price and apply REMDB's stated installed-to-retail ratio of 1.5, and the "as high as 2" its notes mention for some markets, using 1.75 as the midpoint and ±40% around the ends. This line is always marked as an estimate.
- Adders: REMDB "Electric Panel, 200A" (REMDB rates its sources weakly, and we say so) and "Thermostat, Smart". A new line set adds its listed price. Ductwork has no public benchmark, so we ask you to enter the itemized ductwork amount and grade the rest.
REMDB uses SEER (SEER1). We convert with SEER ≈ SEER2 ÷ 0.95, the usual approximation for ducted split systems after the 2023 test procedure change. When we have matching listings in your tier we use their median SEER2; otherwise the midpoint of the tier.
REMDB publishes 2023 dollars. We restate them with CPI-U (CPIAUCSL (CPI-U, all items, seasonally adjusted)): 2023-12 = 308.741, 2026-09 = 336.298, factor 1.0893.
REMDB costs are national averages, divided by location multipliers in the underlying data. We do not apply a regional adjustment, because we do not have a public, citable one at ZIP level. Expect high-cost metros to run above the midpoint.
Grades
We compare the graded quote (your total minus any itemized ductwork) with the benchmark midpoint:
| Grade | Quote vs. benchmark midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|
| A | At or below the midpoint | Fair |
| B | Up to 15% above | Fair |
| C | 15–30% above | Overpriced |
| D | More than 30% above, up to the top of the range | Overpriced |
| F | Above the top of the benchmark range | Red Flag |
A quote below the bottom of the range is also flagged as a Red Flag, because very low prices often mean missing scope.
Tax credits and rebates
- IRS: One, Big, Beautiful Bill provisions. 25C "Not allowed for any property placed in service after Dec. 31, 2025."
- IRS: Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit
- 42 U.S.C. § 18795a: High-efficiency electric home rebate program (IRA § 50122). Up to $8,000 for a heat pump for space heating or cooling; $14,000 total cap; 100% of cost below 80% of area median income, 50% from 80% to 150%.
- Home Energy Rebates Programs (HOMES and HEEHR/HEAR) (U.S. Department of Energy)
- Air-Source Heat Pumps: key product criteria. Split systems: ≥ 7.8 HSPF2, ≥ 15.2 SEER2, ≥ 11.0 EER2. Cold climate (ducted): ≥ 8.1 HSPF2 and COP at 5°F ≥ 1.75.
What we store
If you leave the box ticked, an anonymized copy of your audit is stored: the first three ZIP digits, system type, size, optional brand and model, quote, equipment value and grade. Second-opinion requests, newsletter sign-ups and contractor applications store the details you type, and are only readable by TonnageCheck staff. See privacy.
All sources
- Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (Section 25C) (Internal Revenue Service)
- One, Big, Beautiful Bill provisions: home energy credit expirations (Sections 70505–70507) (Internal Revenue Service)
- 42 U.S.C. § 18795a: High-efficiency electric home rebate program (IRA § 50122) (Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School)
- Home Energy Rebates Programs (HOMES and HEEHR/HEAR) (U.S. Department of Energy)
- State Energy Offices directory (National Association of State Energy Officials)
- DSIRE database of state and utility incentives (NC Clean Energy Technology Center)
- ENERGY STAR Rebate Finder (U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR)
- Air-Source Heat Pumps: key product criteria (U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR)
- ENERGY STAR Certified Air-Source Heat Pumps dataset (w7cv-9xjt) (U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR, data.energystar.gov)
- AHRI Directory of Certified Product Performance (Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute)
- National Residential Efficiency Measures Database (REMDB) (National Laboratory of the Rockies (formerly NREL), U.S. DOE)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL) (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
- HVACDirect.com product listings (HVACDirect)
- Alpine Home Air Products listings (Alpine Home Air Products)